Spot vs Futures Grid Bot: What Backtests Show
We took 513 spot grid bots that ran for over a week in the last three months and replayed the same settings as a futures grid bot. Futures came out ahead in 370 cases, with 8 liquidations. What changed, where it lost, how to start at 1x.
Last updated: October 5, 2026.
We took 513 spot grid bots that ran on real funds over the last three months and replayed each one as a futures grid bot with the same settings. The futures version finished ahead in 370 cases (72.1%). Its average ROE was +9.7% against +1.6% on spot, with medians of +8.5% and +1.5%. Eight futures bots (1.6%) were liquidated.
The futures numbers come from a backtest. They compare two setups on the same price history and don't predict what a bot will make next month.
Key facts
- Sample: 513 real-funds spot grid bots, launched and stopped within the last three months, each running more than 7 days.1
- Method: each bot's pair, range, levels and investment replayed as a futures grid bot over the same dates.
- Futures finished ahead: 370 of 513 bots.
- Average ROE: about 6 times higher on futures. Median about 5.7 times higher.
- Biggest gains: bots that went nowhere on spot, between −10% and +20%.
- Liquidations: 8 bots. Seven of them were already losing 25% to 90% on spot.
- Leverage in the backtest: [TBD]
How we ran the comparison
The research was run by our experts on real bots, with their real settings.
- Spot grid bots on real funds. Demo bots were excluded.
- Launched and stopped inside a window up to three months back.
- Ran longer than 7 days. The futures grid bot is designed for long runs, and short trend trades would distort the comparison.
That left 513 bots. Spot results are what those bots actually returned. Futures results are what the backtest returned for the same settings on perpetual futures over the same dates. [TBD: leverage used, whether fees and funding are included, which exchange's futures data.]
All bots in the sample came from spot, so every replay is a long grid. Short mode was not part of this test.
The results
Half of all spot bots landed within a couple of percent of zero. On futures the middle half spread across about 25 percentage points, most of it above zero. The median rose by seven points, and the lower tail dropped along with it.
Where futures grid gained the most
The largest gains came from bots that barely moved on spot. On the scatter plot they form a tall green column. Those spot bots finished between about −10% and +20%. Their futures replays reached +50% and higher, and about a dozen passed +100%.1
Price stayed inside the range on these bots. The grid kept filling buys and sells, but on spot each round trip added a fraction of a percent to the investment. Leverage lets the same deposit carry more grid levels, so the futures replay booked more round trips per dollar of margin and each one moved ROE further. A flat range is where spot grid earns least, and it's where the futures version pulled furthest ahead.
Where futures grid lost
143 bots did better on spot. Most sit just under the diagonal: the spot bot made 0% to +20%, and the futures replay made a bit less or dipped into a small loss.
Seven of the eight liquidated bots were already deep in the red on spot, between roughly −25% and −90%. Their range didn't fit the market to begin with, and leverage turned a bad loss into a closed position. The eighth went the other way. A spot bot that finished around +150% was liquidated in the futures replay, which shows that a strong final result says little about how a leveraged copy survives the path there.
The strongest spot bots also gave up ground. Four bots that made +100% to +200% on spot finished between roughly +33% and +105% on futures.
For how leverage pulls the liquidation price toward your range, see how leverage moves your position.2
Should you move your grid bot to futures?
Your spot grid's own history is the best guide. The three groups in the data point in different directions:
If you're new to grids, run one on spot or in demo until you know how your pair behaves inside a range. For the basics of the two markets, see spot bot vs futures bot.3
Long, short and Profit cap
The futures grid bot runs long or short. A short grid sells first and buys back lower, so it can trade a falling market that would leave a spot grid holding a dropping coin. This test covered long grids only, so the numbers above say nothing about short.
Profit cap is a futures grid setting that lowers the risk of price leaving the bot's range. Under certain conditions it also trails the grid down with price at no extra cost, in both long and short mode. [TBD: exact trailing conditions from the product team.]
How much leverage to use
Leverage sets two things at once: how many levels your deposit can carry, and how close the liquidation price sits to your range. The backtest above used [TBD] leverage.
If leverage feels risky, start at 1x. A long grid at 1x holds a position equal to your margin, and its liquidation price sits far below any realistic range. You still get short mode and Profit cap, which spot grid doesn't offer. Watch how fills and the liquidation line behave on your pair for a week or two, then decide whether 2x or 3x suits you.
Keep two costs in view at any leverage. Perpetual futures charge or pay a funding rate every few hours, and on a grid that runs for weeks it adds up.4 Isolated margin keeps a liquidation inside one bot, while cross margin delays it by putting more of your balance behind the position.
Run your grid on futures. Bitsgap's futures grid bot keeps the grid logic you know, adds long and short modes and Profit cap, and lets you start at 1x. Try it in demo first, then connect your exchange by API with trade-only permissions: your funds stay on the exchange.
Frequently asked questions
Is a futures grid bot more profitable than a spot grid bot? In a backtest of 513 real spot grid bots replayed on futures with the same settings, the futures version finished ahead in 72.1% of cases. Average ROE was +9.7% against +1.6% on spot, medians +8.5% and +1.5%. Eight futures bots (1.6%) were liquidated.
When does a futures grid bot do better than spot? In flat markets. Bots that made between −10% and +20% on spot showed the largest gains in the futures replay, because leverage lets the same deposit carry more grid levels and each fill moves ROE further.
What leverage should I use on a grid bot? Start at 1x if you're unsure. At 1x a long grid's liquidation price sits far below a typical range, and you still get short mode and Profit cap. Higher leverage adds levels but moves liquidation closer to your range.
Can a futures grid bot be liquidated? Yes. In the 513-bot sample, 8 futures grid bots lost 90% of margin or more. Seven of them were already losing 25% to 90% on spot, so a range that doesn't fit the market is the main risk.
What is a futures grid bot? A bot that places buy and sell orders at set levels inside a price range on perpetual futures. It uses the same logic as a spot grid bot, adds long or short mode and leverage, and carries a liquidation price.
What is Profit cap? A futures grid setting that lowers the risk of price leaving the bot's range and, under certain conditions, trails the grid down with price at no extra cost. It works in long and short mode.
